The Final Push: Political Advertising in the Last Month of the 2024 Election
September 30, 2024
As the election clock ticks down, the final month becomes a battleground where every second, ad, and soundbite counts. Political advertising, already pervasive throughout the campaign, ramps up to a fever pitch. For candidates, the last month represents the make-or-break moment when undecided voters can be swayed, base voters must be mobilized, and opposing candidates undermined. This intense advertising surge doesn’t just happen by chance—it’s a highly calculated, multi-million-dollar effort. Every frame, every slogan, and every image is meticulously crafted to strike a chord.
The Targeted Blitz
In the final stretch, political campaigns aim their advertising cannons directly at key swing states, crucial demographics, and undecided voters. This is where micro-targeting reaches its zenith. For example, during the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the Biden campaign increased ad spending in Pennsylvania and Florida in October, two critical swing states. Ads varied by demographic: Spanish-language ads aired in Miami-Dade County, while in Pennsylvania, ads focused on economic recovery targeted working-class white voters.
These ads are everywhere—on television, radio, online platforms, and even in your mailbox. In 2020, Trump’s digital team ran thousands of Facebook ads tailored to different regions, using localized issues to appeal to specific concerns. Whether it’s health care in suburban neighborhoods or law and order in rural areas, no message is left unsaid. And with the rise of social media, targeting becomes even more precise, allowing campaigns to reach specific audiences on Instagram, TikTok, or YouTube.
The Emotional Appeal
In the last month of the election, political ads turn from general messaging to emotional appeals. Candidates know that voters don’t just respond to facts and policies; they react to emotions. Fear, hope, pride, and anger become powerful motivators. In 2004, for example, the George W. Bush campaign ran an infamous ad showing wolves prowling the forest, meant to stoke fear about national security. It was a carefully crafted metaphor for the threats America could face if voters chose his opponent, John Kerry.
More recently, during the final month of the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats across the country flooded the airwaves with ads highlighting the overturning of Roe v. Wade. These ads didn’t just inform voters of the judicial decision; they appealed directly to fears about women's rights and personal freedoms. Meanwhile, Republicans focused on inflation and rising crime, invoking concerns about safety and the economy.
Attack Ads: The Gloves Come Off
As the election date looms closer, the tone of political ads often turns negative. Attack ads are a classic tool used to undermine opponents. While these types of ads run throughout campaigns, the final month sees a marked increase in their intensity and frequency. Candidates, particularly in close races, use these ads to highlight the worst qualities of their opponents, aiming to sow doubt in voters’ minds.
For example, during the 2016 presidential race, Donald Trump’s campaign relentlessly targeted Hillary Clinton’s trustworthiness, using the now-iconic “Crooked Hillary” branding in ads that featured her email scandal and Benghazi hearings. Meanwhile, Clinton’s ads frequently spotlighted Trump’s controversial remarks, using his own words against him. The final month of that election saw a bombardment of negative ads from both sides, as both candidates tried to paint each other as unfit for office.
The Closing Message: Hope vs. Fear
Despite the negativity, the last month of political advertising often closes on a hopeful note, especially for frontrunners. As election day nears, campaigns know they must leave voters with an inspiring message. This "closing argument" is meant to encapsulate the vision of the candidate while appealing to the core values of the electorate.
In Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, his final ads emphasized hope and change, contrasting with the fear and uncertainty that had dominated the economic and foreign policy debates. These ads, full of uplifting music and scenes of everyday Americans, painted a picture of a brighter future under his leadership. By the time voters went to the polls, many had that vision of hope stuck in their heads.
The Data-Driven Strategy Behind the Ads
All of this is backed by data. Campaigns no longer rely on instinct; they rely on real-time information from polling, focus groups, and online tracking. In the 2012 presidential election, Barack Obama’s team famously used advanced data analytics to determine which voters were most likely to be undecided, tailoring ads directly to these individuals. This “big data” approach helped Obama’s campaign maximize its resources in key battleground states.
In 2020, both the Trump and Biden campaigns took this strategy even further by leveraging algorithms to determine the best times to run ads, the most effective formats (video, static images, or text), and the platforms where certain demographics would see them. The Biden campaign invested heavily in digital platforms like Hulu and YouTube, where younger voters were likely to spend their time, while the Trump campaign used Facebook’s micro-targeting tools to deliver personalized messages to older and rural voters.
The Impact of Political Advertising in the Final Month
Does political advertising in the last month of an election make a difference? The evidence suggests it does, especially when it comes to turnout. In tight races, the barrage of ads can help push undecided voters off the fence, or even dissuade likely voters from supporting a candidate. A single ad may not change the outcome, but a coordinated strategy of emotional appeals, targeted messaging, and attack ads can create an electoral environment where one candidate has a definitive edge.
In 2016, for instance, Trump’s relentless focus on Rust Belt states like Michigan and Wisconsin through advertising in the final weeks helped secure his surprise victory. Similarly, in the 2020 Georgia Senate runoffs, both parties flooded the airwaves in the last month, recognizing that even a small shift in voter behavior could determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Conclusion: The Last Mile to the Finish Line
The final month of an election is a blur of ads—some uplifting, others hard-hitting, and many negative. In this last mile to the finish line, political advertising becomes more than just messaging; it is a relentless force shaping voters’ perceptions, choices, and ultimately, the future direction of the country. For voters, it can feel overwhelming, but for campaigns, every ad is an opportunity—a last chance to win the hearts, minds, and votes of the people.
