
The Final Stretch of the Presidential Election: What to Expect in Political Advertising
August 29, 2024
With the summer trying to close and both parties conventions complete, the presidential election enters its final phase. Now political advertising will take center stage in shaping public opinion and influencing voter turnout more than ever. In this crucial period, campaigns ramp up their efforts to leave a lasting impression on voters. Here’s what you can expect in terms of strategies, messaging, and the overall impact of political advertising in the closing weeks.
1. A Surge in Spending
The last stretch of the election is marked by a significant increase in advertising spending. Campaigns, super PACs, and other political organizations often save their largest expenditures for these final weeks to maximize their impact when voters are paying the most attention. In 2020, for example, the Trump and Biden campaigns, along with supporting groups, spent more than a billion dollars on ads during the final two months. This pattern is expected to repeat, with even more sophisticated targeting and a broader use of digital platforms.
2 Shift to Key Battlegrounds
As the election nears, campaigns will concentrate their resources on battleground states and swing districts where the outcome is uncertain. These are areas where a small number of voters could decide the entire election. Expect to see a barrage of ads in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona. The messaging will be highly tailored to the local issues and demographics in these regions. For example, in 2020, ads in Rust Belt states focused heavily on economic issues, while those in Florida often centered on immigration and healthcare.
3. Negative Advertising Dominates
Negative advertising is a staple of political campaigns, but it becomes especially prevalent in the final stretch. The goal is to undermine the opponent’s credibility and sway undecided voters by casting doubt on their character, policies, or competence. This type of advertising is often more memorable than positive ads, which is why campaigns rely on it heavily as Election Day approaches. In the 2016 election, negative ads were a defining feature, with both the Trump and Clinton campaigns launching harsh attacks against each other in the closing weeks. The 2024 election is likely to be no different, with both candidates deploying aggressive ads that question the integrity and leadership abilities of their rivals.
4. Micro-Targeting and Data Analytics
The use of data analytics and micro-targeting will reach new heights in the final weeks of the campaign. Political advertisers now have access to vast amounts of data on voters, allowing them to create highly personalized ads. These ads can be tailored to individual voters based on their online behavior, demographics, and even past voting patterns. For example, a suburban mother in Ohio might receive ads focused on education and healthcare, while a young professional in Georgia could see ads about job creation and student debt. This micro-targeting is made possible by sophisticated algorithms and data from social media platforms, voter files, and consumer data brokers.
5. Digital and Social Media Dominate
While television remains a significant medium for political advertising, digital and social media platforms are now just as crucial, if not more so. In the final stretch, expect to see a heavy presence of political ads on platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram. These platforms allow campaigns to reach specific demographics with tailored messages and, importantly, enable rapid response to emerging events. For example, a campaign can quickly create and distribute an ad addressing a new scandal or policy proposal, ensuring that their narrative reaches voters before their opponent’s does.
In addition, social media allows for the dissemination of both paid ads and organic content. Influencers, grassroots organizations, and everyday supporters will amplify campaign messages, creating a more complex and sometimes chaotic advertising landscape. This environment also opens the door to misinformation, making it crucial for voters to critically assess the information they encounter online.
6. The Role of Misinformation and Fact-Checking
Misinformation and disinformation are persistent challenges in political advertising, and they often escalate in the final weeks of a campaign. False or misleading ads can spread quickly on social media, influencing voters before the truth can catch up. In response, fact-checking organizations and platforms have stepped up their efforts to debunk false claims in real-time. However, the sheer volume of content and the speed at which it spreads make this an uphill battle.
For instance, during the 2020 election, Facebook and Twitter implemented measures to flag or remove misleading content, but critics argued that these efforts were often too little, too late. In the current election cycle, expect these platforms to face similar challenges, with campaigns pushing the boundaries of what is considered truthful advertising.
7. Last-Minute Endorsements and Celebrity Influence
As the election day nears, high-profile endorsements and the involvement of celebrities can have a significant impact, especially if they are tied to strategic advertising campaigns. Celebrities with large followings can sway public opinion and drive voter engagement through their platforms. For example, during the 2020 election, Beyoncé, LeBron James, and Taylor Swift used their influence to mobilize voters, particularly among younger demographics.
Campaigns will likely leverage endorsements in their advertising, airing spots that feature prominent figures voicing their support for a candidate. These endorsements can be particularly effective in reaching undecided voters who may be more influenced by cultural figures than by traditional political messaging.
8. Focus on Turnout and Mobilization
In the final weeks, the emphasis of political advertising will shift from persuasion to mobilization. The focus will be on getting supporters to the polls, whether through early voting, absentee ballots, or showing up on Election Day. Ads will highlight the importance of voting and provide information on how and where to vote, especially in states with complex voting rules.
In 2020, the Biden campaign’s final ads included messages about the importance of voting and instructions on how to do so safely amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar efforts will be seen in the current cycle, with campaigns using a mix of emotional appeals and practical information to ensure high turnout among their base.
Conclusion
As the presidential election enters its final phase, political advertising will become more intense, targeted, and complex. From a surge in spending to a focus on key battlegrounds and a reliance on digital platforms, campaigns will use every tool at their disposal to sway voters. Negative ads, micro-targeting, and the influence of endorsements will all play crucial roles in shaping the outcome. Voters should expect a flood of ads in the coming weeks, each designed to leave a lasting impression before they cast their ballots.
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