The Impact of Trump’s Conviction on Political Advertising for the 2024 Presidential Campaign

June 11, 2024

Political ads have certainly popped up now that the trial of former President Donald Trump has concluded.  But what does this mean for political advertising and the looming November election. This month, I look at some of what is expected to happen on the political advertising front.

The conviction of former President Donald Trump on 34 counts of falsifying business records in New York marks a watershed moment with profound implications for the upcoming 2024 presidential campaign. This legal development will significantly influence political advertising strategies, messaging, and overall narrative frameworks for candidates on both sides of the political spectrum.

The Specifics of Trump’s Conviction

Trump’s conviction stems from allegations that he falsified business records to conceal hush money payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels and other individuals during his 2016 presidential campaign. These payments were allegedly intended to prevent damaging information from surfacing that could potentially harm his candidacy. The charges assert that Trump orchestrated these payments through intermediaries and subsequently misrepresented them in his company's financial statements.

Impact on Political Advertising

For Trump’s Opponents

Political advertisements from Democratic candidates and anti-Trump Republicans will likely underscore Trump’s legal and ethical violations. Ads will emphasize themes of corruption, dishonesty, and criminal behavior, using the conviction as a focal point to argue that Trump is unfit for the presidency. These ads might feature courtroom scenes, legal documents, and media coverage of the trial to reinforce the narrative of Trump’s compromised integrity.

Example: An advertisement might open with news clips about the conviction, followed by a somber voiceover stating, “Donald Trump was convicted of falsifying business records to cover up his crimes. Is this the man we want leading our country?”

Ads will focus on contrasting Trump’s legal issues with the purported integrity and transparency of other candidates. They will likely highlight the importance of trust and ethical leadership, positioning Trump as the antithesis of these values.

Example: A campaign ad could feature testimonials from voters expressing their disappointment in Trump’s actions and their desire for a president who upholds the law and demonstrates moral fortitude.

Swing voters, often decisive in elections, will be a primary target. Advertisements will be designed to appeal to their sense of justice and propriety, presenting Trump’s conviction as a clear disqualifier for holding office. These ads will likely be emotionally charged, aiming to sway undecided voters by invoking concerns about the stability and legitimacy of Trump’s leadership.

Example: An ad might feature a family discussing the importance of setting a good example for children and questioning how they can trust a leader who has been convicted of criminal activity.

Ads will also aim to energize the Democratic base and anti-Trump voters, encouraging high voter turnout by framing the election as a moral imperative to prevent a convicted criminal from returning to the White House.

Example: An advertisement might juxtapose images of Trump’s legal proceedings with scenes of voters casting ballots, accompanied by a call to action urging viewers to vote against corruption and for a brighter future.

For Trump and His Supporters

Trump’s campaign will likely counteract the conviction by portraying it as a politically motivated attack orchestrated by his enemies. Advertisements will depict Trump as a victim of an unfair legal system and a biased political establishment, seeking to undermine his candidacy through unjust means.

Example: A campaign ad could feature Trump speaking at a rally, denouncing the charges as a “witch hunt” and calling on his supporters to stand against the establishment. The ad might include dramatic music and imagery of patriotic symbols to evoke a sense of defiance and solidarity.

Trump’s ads will likely frame him as a resilient fighter who stands up against corruption and unfair treatment, resonating with voters who feel disenfranchised by the political system. This narrative aims to solidify his base and attract those who see themselves as underdogs.

Example: An advertisement might highlight Trump’s past successes and his ability to overcome adversity, framing the conviction as just another hurdle that he will triumph over.

Trump’s advertising strategy may include a significant focus on his accomplishments during his presidency, diverting attention from his legal issues. Ads will highlight economic growth, job creation, and foreign policy successes, aiming to remind voters of his effective leadership despite the ongoing legal battles.

Example: An ad could feature testimonials from small business owners and workers who benefited from Trump’s policies, ending with a message about looking forward to continuing that success in the future.

The Broader Media Ecosystem

The media will play a crucial role in amplifying the messages conveyed through political ads. Continuous coverage of Trump’s conviction and the subsequent reactions from both sides will ensure that this issue remains at the forefront of public discourse, influencing voter perceptions and the effectiveness of campaign advertisements.

Campaigns will utilize advanced data analytics and microtargeting techniques to tailor their advertisements to specific voter demographics. By analyzing voter behavior and responses to Trump’s conviction, campaigns can refine their messages to maximize impact and reach the most receptive audiences.

The rise of misinformation and the role of fact-checking will be heightened. Political ads will be closely scrutinized for accuracy, with fact-checking organizations playing a pivotal role in validating claims. This scrutiny could lead to increased polarization, as supporters and detractors of Trump latch onto different narratives based on the veracity of information presented.

Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records is poised to significantly impact the 2024 presidential campaign, particularly in the realm of political advertising. For Trump’s opponents, it offers a powerful narrative to question his fitness for office and mobilize voters against him. For Trump and his supporters, it provides an opportunity to rally his base by portraying him as a victim of political persecution and emphasizing his resilience. The media ecosystem will amplify these messages, ensuring that Trump’s legal troubles remain a central issue throughout the campaign. As the election approaches, political advertising will become an even more crucial tool in shaping voter perceptions and determining the outcome.